A lot of smart people spend a lot of time trying to predict how much oil and gas is going to come out of the ground in the future.
Lately, they've been getting it wrong.
"Unpredictability, measured as the frequency of extreme errors in ... projections, has increased in the most recent decade," according to an unusual new study by a team at Carnegie Mellon University that found analysts are getting worse at predicting both how much oil and gas will be produced and how much Americans will need.
That's not good news, according to Ines Azevedo, an engineer at Carnegie Mellon who supervised the study. Oil and gas alone contribute about $250 billion per year to the economy, and fuel-dependent transportation of people and goods add almost a trillion dollars more.