We need to hit the brakes or blow past Paris
In other words, we are indeed on track to burn through the remaining Paris carbon budget by 2030, and under current international climate policies, we’re most likely headed for about 3.4°C warming by 2100.
Climate contrarians want to gamble on the long shot that the climate sensitivity is on the low end of the possible range, which would give us a few extra decades before we burn past the Paris target. But even that relatively rosy scenario would require more aggressive international climate policies than are in place today. We still have to change course even to limit ourselves to a doubling of carbon dioxide-equivalent in the atmosphere.
And the body of scientific research keeps refuting the contrarian case. If anything, recent research suggests the climate sensitivity is toward the high end of the possible range, but Goodwin’s study finds that it’s most likely right where climate scientists have expected for decades.